Madrid, not Catalonia, is the problem for the EU: unable to negotiate like London and a future failed state without Catalonia. Below: Switzerland with barretina cap and Catalonia with cuckoo clock: Same size in inhabitants and area. Not a member of the EU but where EU law applies.
Dr. Lang of Europe’s largest think tank SWP in Berlin and an expert on the EU entry of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia, all products of secessions, argues that Madrid must negotiate with Catalonia. The continued refusal to reach a deal will make Catalonia become independent, with EU law and citizenship.
“It would a great simplification to view the economic crisis as the sole cause of the new Catalan demands. The Spanish Constitutional Court rejected in its judgment of June 2010 significant aspects of the Statute of Autonomy, especially finances and language policy. As a result most Catalan representatives saw that there were no more possibilities to develop their autonomy within the Spanish model. Then the economic crisis made the net contribution of Catalonia in the Spanish system of financial compensation into a highly controversial topic. The region hard hit by the crisis claims it transfers 8% of its GDP in redistribution to other parts of Spain. Without these net transfers under the present system, the consolidation constraints in Catalonia would be much smaller. The Catalan government therefore wanted a renegotiation of the financial transfer model calling for a fiscal pact.
The endless conflicts and negotiations on responsibilities and money have led to the feeling in much of Catalan society that they increasingly have less and less say in managing their own affairs. This view is particularly pronounced when it comes to infrastructure projects or regional development where cases of (alleged) discrimination such as building high speed lines are firmly anchored in the public and private discourse. The calls for sovereignty (soberanisme) and independence (independentisme) leading to statehood and secession have grown enourmously in the last few years in the political debate and in real demands. In dozens of cities and towns “independence referendums” were held, at which nearly 900,000 people took part. A massive demonstration was held on 10 July 2010 in Barcelona as a direct response to the judgment of the Constitutional Court on the Statute of Autonomy. For the Catalan national day on 11 September 2012 up to 1.5 million people gathered in the streets of Barcelona in an openly independence oriented protest march under the slogan “Catalonia, new state in Europe.” A striking feature of the Catalan movement are its roots within civil society and all cities and towns. On 11 September 2013 the Assemblea Nacional de Catalunya ANC plans a human chain throughout Catalonia. The conflicts on the Statute of Autonomy and the growing discontent of large parts of Catalan society have not only led to mass mobilization and protest rallies but also to a significant change in public opinion. The Madrid research institute Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) found in a survey conducted at year’s end that 83% of people in Catalonia are dissatisfied with the Rajoy government policy towards Catalonia. The share of respondents in favour of a referendum amounts to around 70%. The weight of those who find statehood the best solution has grown dramatically in the past three years. The result of a referendum is therefore quite open. Several surveys have shown a clear preponderance of positive votes in case of a yes-no vote for independence. The move to Catalan independence is therefore seen as thinkable for growing parts of the population and is no longer taboo. Were there a negative decision by Madrid, elections would be called that would have a plebiscitary character and against which the central government would have no legal leverage in Catalonia. That Madrid decided on a referendum for the whole of Spain seems unlikely. Although probably there would be a no vote in the rest of Spain, Catalonia would be given the opportunity of an entirely legal yes vote in addition to a high turnout. The political divide in the country would be even wider, since the pro-Catalan forces would claim the legitimacy of the vote for themselves. According to the cooperation agreement between CiU and ERC a referendum is to take place in 2014. The date of 11 September 2014 is proopsed, the National Day of Catalonia, marking the 300th anniversary of its incorporation into the Spanish State. On 18 September Scotland will hold its referendum on independence, whose outcome could affect the Catalan vote. Rajoy should follow the example of the British Prime Minister Cameron on the the Scottish desire for a referendum. Instead of denials he has dealt with it constructively. The Spanish President has so far failed to submit to the Catalan people an attractive offer. Beyond the desirable “legal” way there are also “legitimate” options available that would allow the exercise of the right of self-determination. The Catalan question has manifold dimensions for Europe. The EU and Member States may come to a point at which they consider a negotiated separation would be preferable to a state of permanent instability. Spain can reach a constitutional “point of no return” at which Catalonia withdraws from the current political system. Could there be a second Kosovo constellation but with citizens of the state alreadyl in possession of EU citizenship? The Catalan issue carries risks but also opportunities. If the Spanish model of autonomy could evolve to a new equilibrium, this could establish a new regionalism in the EU. For this Madrid centralism must show a willingness to reform. If, on the other hand, the process of alienation between Catalonia and Madrid continues to progress and a solid sovereign consensus emerges in Catalonia, Spain would hardly be able to hold itself together. In the case of an inevitable rupture (ruptura) it would be advisable to consider models that could mitigate the negative consequences for all concerned. One could envision an inverse Cyprus model: The whole island is a member of the EU, but the acquis is applied only to a part of the territory. In the case of secession initially only the smaller successor state would be member of the EU, but European law would apply to both territories. The key to a constructive solution of the Catalan question lies in Madrid.”
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